Kansas State’s points of margin with Avery Johnson and since Avery Johnson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 0.5 points over with Avery Johnson and 9.0 points under since Avery Johnson’s last game over its last 25 games, 21 games against 2. The plain averages are 5.7 and -7.0, a difference of 12.7. All 13 home games were with Avery Johnson. Both neutral-site games were with Avery Johnson. All 7 night games were with Avery Johnson.
Avery Johnson, quarterback: 4,744 passing yards, 688 pass attempts and 409 completions in 23 of those 25 games.
2 games since Avery Johnson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +9.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +12.7 difference in points of margin with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Houston | L | -5 | 12.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | -10 | 0.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Cincinnati | W | 26 | 4.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Iowa State | L | -8 | -3.6 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Rutgers (neutral) | W | 3 | 5.9 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsIowa State (neutral) | L | -3 | 1.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsNNorth Dakota | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Army | L | -3 | 14.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | -6 | -6.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 14 | 12.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Baylor | L | -1 | 4.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 13 | -0.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kansas | W | 25 | -2.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | -23 | -13.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 8 | 20.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Utah | L | -4 | -18.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 10 | 15.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 68 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 27 | 8.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 11 | 9.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Cincinnati | L | -5 | -2.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsHouston | L | -19 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsKansas | W | 11 | -5.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arizona State | L | -11 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Colorado | L | -3 | 1.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- North Dakota, Nicholls have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.