Kansas State’s passing yards with Garrett Oakley and without Garrett Oakley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 5.6 yards under with Garrett Oakley and 5.6 yards over without Garrett Oakley in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 227.7 and 201.5, a difference of 26.2. Expected was 33.5 yards higher with Garrett Oakley than without Garrett Oakley. Both night games were with Garrett Oakley. All 3 nonconference games were with Garrett Oakley. All 4 first-half games were with Garrett Oakley.
Garrett Oakley, tight end: 221 receiving yards and 19 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Garrett Oakley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A −11.2 difference in passing yards over expected with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is about what you’d expect.
A +26.2 difference in passing yards with Garrett Oakley vs without Garrett Oakley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 247 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 192 | 216.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 227 | 223.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 292 | 261.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 182 | 239.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 209 | 173.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 194 | 218.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Colorado | L | 226 | 205.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.