Kansas State’s carries with Avery Johnson and since Avery Johnson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Kansas State was 0.0 carries over with Avery Johnson and 1.4 carries over since Avery Johnson’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.5 and 35.5, a difference of 2.0. Expected was 2.3 carries higher with Avery Johnson than since Avery Johnson’s last game. All 5 home games were with Avery Johnson. Both night games were with Avery Johnson. All 3 nonconference games were with Avery Johnson.
Avery Johnson, quarterback: 1,301 passing yards, 187 pass attempts and 118 completions in 6 games this season, 23% of Kansas State’s carries in those games.
2 games since Avery Johnson’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in carries over expected with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +2.0 difference in carries with Avery Johnson vs since Avery Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 40 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Tulane | W | 34 | 42.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 29 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kansas | W | 49 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 32 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Colorado | L | 39 | 35.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.