James Madison’s third-down conversion rate with JC Evans and without JC Evans
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 5.6 percentage points over with JC Evans and 0.7 percentage points over without JC Evans over its last 25 games, 1 game against 22. The plain averages are 40.0% and 43.4%, a difference of 3.4%. Expected was 6.9 percentage points lower with JC Evans than without JC Evans. All 11 away games were without JC Evans. All 8 night games were without JC Evans. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without JC Evans.
JC Evans, quarterback: 371 passing yards, 39 pass attempts and 27 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
One game with JC Evans is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with JC Evans
+5.6%
without JC Evans
+0.7%
-20%0%20%
plain
40.0%
43.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with JC Evanswithout JC Evans
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 30.8% | 36.7% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | W | 43.8% | 42.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 41.2% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 60.0% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 61.5% | 48.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 28.6% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 47.1% | 46.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | W | 75.0% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Texas State | W | 54.5% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Marshall | W | 41.7% | 43.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 57.1% | 46.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 36.4% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 45.5% | 42.7% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 14.3% | 46.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 40.9% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsLiberty | W | 40.0% | 34.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 30.8% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMarshall | W | 50.0% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Georgia Southern | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsGeorgia State | W | 50.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | 13.3% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsTroy | L | 38.9% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Weber State, Wagner have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 23 of these 25 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.