James Madison’s third-down conversion rate with JC Evans and since JC Evans’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 5.5 percentage points over with JC Evans and 3.0 percentage points under since JC Evans’ last game in 2026, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 40.0% and 38.8%, a difference of 1.2%. Expected was 3.9 percentage points lower with JC Evans than since JC Evans’ last game. All 4 away games were since JC Evans’ last game. All 5 night games were since JC Evans’ last game. All 6 conference games were since JC Evans’ last game.
JC Evans, quarterback: 370 passing yards, 36 pass attempts and 26 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with JC Evans is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with JC Evans
+5.5%
since JC Evans’ last game
−3.0%
-20%0%
plain
40.0%
38.8%
20%40%60%
The games
with JC Evanssince JC Evans’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Liberty | W | 40.0% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 30.8% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 50.0% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 50.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 13.3% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Troy | L | 38.9% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.