James Madison’s third-down conversion rate with George Pettaway and without George Pettaway
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 1.6 percentage points over with George Pettaway and 3.3 percentage points under without George Pettaway over its last 25 games, 20 games against 3. The plain averages are 43.3% and 43.0%, a difference of 0.3%. Expected was 6.0 percentage points lower with George Pettaway than without George Pettaway. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with George Pettaway. All 5 games while ranked were with George Pettaway. All 10 nonconference games were with George Pettaway.
George Pettaway, running back: 1,160 rushing yards, 185 carries and 18 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
3 games without George Pettaway is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +4.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with George Pettaway vs without George Pettaway is about what you’d expect.
A +0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with George Pettaway vs without George Pettaway is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 30.8% | 36.7% | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | W | 43.8% | 42.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 41.2% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 60.0% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 61.5% | 48.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 28.6% | 49.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 47.1% | 46.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | W | 75.0% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Texas State | W | 54.5% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Marshall | W | 41.7% | 43.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 57.1% | 46.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 36.4% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 45.5% | 42.7% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 14.3% | 46.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 40.9% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsLiberty | W | 40.0% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 30.8% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMarshall | W | 50.0% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Georgia Southern | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsGeorgia State | W | 50.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | 13.3% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsTroy | L | 38.9% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Weber State, Wagner have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 23 of these 25 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.