James Madison’s third-down conversion rate with George Pettaway and since George Pettaway’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 2.0 percentage points under with George Pettaway and 1.6 percentage points under since George Pettaway’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.9% and 38.9%, a difference of 0.0%. Expected was 3.0 percentage points lower with George Pettaway than since George Pettaway’s last game. All 4 away games were with George Pettaway. All 4 day games were with George Pettaway. All 3 nonconference games were with George Pettaway.
George Pettaway, running back: 812 rushing yards, 125 carries and 8 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since George Pettaway’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with George Pettaway
−2.0%
since George Pettaway’s last game
−1.6%
-20%0%
plain
38.9%
38.9%
20%40%60%
The games
with George Pettawaysince George Pettaway’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Liberty | W | 40.0% | 34.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 30.8% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 33.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 50.0% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 31.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 50.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 13.3% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Troy | L | 38.9% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.