James Madison’s points allowed with JC Evans and without JC Evans
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 18.3 points under with JC Evans and 0.5 points under without JC Evans over its last 25 games, 1 game against 22. The plain averages are 13.0 and 19.4, a difference of 6.4. Expected was 10.3 points higher with JC Evans than without JC Evans. All 11 away games were without JC Evans. All 8 night games were without JC Evans. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without JC Evans.
JC Evans, quarterback: 371 passing yards, 39 pass attempts and 27 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
One game with JC Evans is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with JC Evans
−18.3
without JC Evans
−0.5
-10010
plain
13.0
19.4
2040
The games
with JC Evanswithout JC Evans
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 35 | 24.7 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky (neutral) | W | 17 | 21.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsWWeber State | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 28 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 13 | 19.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 10 | 18.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 7 | 15.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 14 | 15.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | W | 27 | 19.3 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Texas State | W | 20 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Marshall | W | 23 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 10 | 15.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 20 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 10 | 19.4 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 14 | 14.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 51 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsLiberty | W | 13 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 13 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 20 | 16.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMarshall | W | 17 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Georgia Southern | W | 24 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsGeorgia State | W | 22 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | 34 | 19.4 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vsTroy | L | 24 | 19.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Weber State, Wagner have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 23 of these 25 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.