James Madison’s points allowed with JC Evans and since JC Evans’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, James Madison was 18.3 points under with JC Evans and 0.6 points over since JC Evans’ last game in 2026, 1 game against 7. The plain averages are 13.0 and 19.6, a difference of 6.6. Expected was 9.9 points higher with JC Evans than since JC Evans’ last game. All 4 away games were since JC Evans’ last game. All 5 night games were since JC Evans’ last game. All 6 conference games were since JC Evans’ last game.
JC Evans, quarterback: 370 passing yards, 36 pass attempts and 26 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with JC Evans is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with JC Evans
−18.3
since JC Evans’ last game
+0.6
-10010
plain
13.0
19.6
102030
The games
with JC Evanssince JC Evans’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Liberty | W | 13 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Diego State | W | 13 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 20 | 16.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 17 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 24 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Georgia State | W | 22 | 25.1 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 34 | 19.4 | |
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Troy | L | 24 | 19.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.