Jacksonville State’s third-down conversion rate with Lucas Farrington and without Lucas Farrington
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 5.0 percentage points over with Lucas Farrington and 3.8 percentage points under without Lucas Farrington over its last 25 games, 9 games against 10. The plain averages are 49.4% and 32.7%, a difference of 16.7%.
Lucas Farrington, running back: 225 rushing yards, 42 carries and 8 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Lucas Farrington vs without Lucas Farrington is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Lucas Farrington and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A +16.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Lucas Farrington vs without Lucas Farrington is unusual: shuffle which games were with Lucas Farrington and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 15.4% | 43.6% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 44.4% | 42.0% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 39.5% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 20.0% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 57.1% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 50.0% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | W | 28.6% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 44.4% | 36.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 33.3% | 31.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 36.4% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 23.1% | 38.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 33.3% | 37.0% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 27.3% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Troy (neutral) | W | 47.1% | 36.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 20.0% | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 60.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | W | 36.4% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 33.3% | 43.8% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 30.0% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | @ New Mexico State | W | 54.5% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Lucas Farrington nor without Lucas Farrington: Lucas Farrington had no game for the team that season, and sit out.