Jacksonville State’s pass attempts at home and away
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Through Jacksonville State’s game on Oct 13, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Jacksonville State was 6.7 pass attempts under at home and 2.3 pass attempts over away over its last 25 games, 10 games against 9. The plain averages are 21.3 and 27.3, a difference of 6.0. All 3 games after a bye were away.
Jacksonville State’s −9.0 at home vs away over expected ranks 136th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 13, 2026.
pass attempts a game over expected
at home
−6.7
away
+2.3
-10010
A −9.0 difference in pass attempts over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
21.3
27.3
203040
A −6.0 difference in pass attempts at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Sam Houston | W | 12 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 17 | 22.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 15 | 21.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 34 | 24.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 30 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 12 | 24.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | L | 25 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsMMurray State | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | L | 25 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsSam Houston (neutral) | W | 17 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 24 | 26.0 | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 21 | 25.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ UTEP | W | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | W | 14 | 25.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Florida International | L | 31 | 24.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 20 | 27.6 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsKennesaw State | L | 22 | 24.8 | |
| Dec 16, 2025 | vs Troy (neutral) | W | 22 | 22.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 23 | — | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsEEastern Kentucky | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Ohio | L | 26 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | W | 24 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMiddle Tennessee | W | 27 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Kennesaw State | W | 44 | 28.7 | |
| Oct 13, 2026 | vsFlorida International | W | 22 | 28.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State, North Dakota State, Eastern Kentucky have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 13.