Iowa’s third-down conversion rate with Jeremy Hecklinski and without Jeremy Hecklinski
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 1.8 percentage points under with Jeremy Hecklinski and 0.5 percentage points over without Jeremy Hecklinski in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 33.3% and 40.0%, a difference of 6.7%. All 5 home games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 6 day games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 3 ranked opponents were without Jeremy Hecklinski.
Jeremy Hecklinski, quarterback: 472 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 41 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Jeremy Hecklinski is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jeremy Hecklinski
−1.8%
without Jeremy Hecklinski
+0.5%
-10%0%10%
plain
33.3%
40.0%
30%40%50%
The games
with Jeremy Hecklinskiwithout Jeremy Hecklinski
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42.9% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 33.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 25.0% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 53.3% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.