Iowa’s third-down conversion rate with Hank Brown and without Hank Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 0.5 percentage points over with Hank Brown and 0.4 percentage points over without Hank Brown over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are 40.0% and 41.5%, a difference of 1.4%.
Hank Brown, quarterback: 1,297 passing yards, 190 pass attempts and 120 completions in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Hank Brown
+0.5%
without Hank Brown
+0.4%
-20%0%20%
A +0.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Hank Brown vs without Hank Brown is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.0%
41.5%
20%40%60%
A −1.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Hank Brown vs without Hank Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Hank Brownwithout Hank Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 40.0% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 35.7% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Nebraska | W | 0.0% | 41.0% | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Missouri (neutral) | L | 46.2% | 33.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsUUAlbany | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 62.5% | 49.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 37.5% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 37.5% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 41.7% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 40.0% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 33.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 38.5% | 36.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ USC | L | 40.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 10.0% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 58.3% | 37.9% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42.9% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 33.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 25.0% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 53.3% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Northern Iowa have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 16 of these 21 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Hank Brown nor without Hank Brown: Hank Brown had no game for the team that season, and sit out.