Iowa’s third-down conversion rate with Hank Brown and without Hank Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 0.5 percentage points over with Hank Brown and 1.8 percentage points under without Hank Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.0% and 33.3%, a difference of 6.7%. All 5 home games were with Hank Brown. All 6 day games were with Hank Brown. All 3 ranked opponents were with Hank Brown.
Hank Brown, quarterback: 1,190 passing yards, 169 pass attempts and 109 completions in 7 games this season.
One game without Hank Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Hank Brown
+0.5%
without Hank Brown
−1.8%
-10%0%10%
plain
40.0%
33.3%
30%40%50%
The games
with Hank Brownwithout Hank Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 42.9% | 50.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 42.9% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 45.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 33.3% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 25.0% | 35.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 53.3% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.