Iowa’s points with Hank Brown and without Hank Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 4.6 points under with Hank Brown and 2.3 points over without Hank Brown over its last 25 games, 6 games against 13. The plain averages are 26.4 and 30.1, a difference of 3.7.
Hank Brown, quarterback: 1,297 passing yards, 190 pass attempts and 120 completions in 10 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Hank Brown
−4.6
without Hank Brown
+2.3
-1001020
A −6.9 difference in points over expected with Hank Brown vs without Hank Brown is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Hank Brown and it comes up 14 times in 100.
plain
26.4
30.1
2040
A −3.7 difference in points with Hank Brown vs without Hank Brown is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Hank Brownwithout Hank Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 17 | 26.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 29 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Nebraska | W | 13 | 26.6 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Missouri (neutral) | L | 24 | 25.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsUUAlbany | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 13 | 27.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 47 | 49.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 38 | 32.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 15 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 37 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 25 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 41 | 28.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 16 | 23.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ USC | L | 21 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 20 | 35.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 40 | 26.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | W | 34 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 40 | 39.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 16 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 14 | 22.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 41 | 17.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 10 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 30 | 17.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Northern Iowa have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 16 of these 21 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Hank Brown nor without Hank Brown: Hank Brown had no game for the team that season, and sit out.