Iowa’s points of margin with Kamari Moulton and without Kamari Moulton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 0.9 points over with Kamari Moulton and 0.6 points over without Kamari Moulton over its last 25 games, 20 games against 3. The plain averages are 9.0 and 30.5, a difference of 21.5. Both neutral-site games were with Kamari Moulton. Both top-10 opponents were with Kamari Moulton. All 4 games after a bye were with Kamari Moulton.
Kamari Moulton, running back: 1,632 rushing yards, 288 carries and 25 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Kamari Moulton vs without Kamari Moulton is about what you’d expect.
A −21.5 difference in points of margin with Kamari Moulton vs without Kamari Moulton is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kamari Moulton and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | -3 | 7.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 16 | 7.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Nebraska | W | 3 | 7.5 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Missouri (neutral) | L | -3 | 3.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsUUAlbany | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | -3 | 11.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 40 | 58.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 10 | 14.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | -5 | -14.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 37 | 8.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 1 | 7.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 38 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | -2 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ USC | L | -5 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 3 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 24 | 7.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | W | 7 | 0.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 3 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 1 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | -17 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 17 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 30 | -4.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Northern Iowa have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 16 of these 25 games; in the other 9 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.