Iowa’s points of margin with Kamari Moulton and without Kamari Moulton
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 3.2 points under with Kamari Moulton and 34.5 points over without Kamari Moulton in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 6.8 and 42.5, a difference of 35.7. All 3 away games were with Kamari Moulton. Both night games were with Kamari Moulton.
Kamari Moulton, running back: 541 rushing yards, 86 carries and 9 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kamari Moulton is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kamari Moulton
−3.2
without Kamari Moulton
+34.5
020
plain
6.8
42.5
02040
A −35.7 difference in points of margin with Kamari Moulton vs without Kamari Moulton is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kamari Moulton and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
with Kamari Moultonwithout Kamari Moulton
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 3 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 1 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | -17 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 17 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 30 | -4.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.