Iowa’s points of margin with Jeremy Hecklinski and without Jeremy Hecklinski
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 17.6 points over with Jeremy Hecklinski and 0.4 points under without Jeremy Hecklinski in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 17.0 and 15.6, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 10.0 points lower with Jeremy Hecklinski than without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 5 home games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 6 day games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 3 ranked opponents were without Jeremy Hecklinski.
Jeremy Hecklinski, quarterback: 472 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 41 completions in 5 games this season.
One game with Jeremy Hecklinski is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jeremy Hecklinski
+17.6
without Jeremy Hecklinski
−0.4
020
plain
17.0
15.6
02040
The games
with Jeremy Hecklinskiwithout Jeremy Hecklinski
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 3 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 1 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | -17 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 17 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 30 | -4.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.