Iowa’s points of margin with Hank Brown and without Hank Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 0.4 points under with Hank Brown and 17.6 points over without Hank Brown in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 15.6 and 17.0, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 10.0 points higher with Hank Brown than without Hank Brown. All 5 home games were with Hank Brown. All 6 day games were with Hank Brown. All 3 ranked opponents were with Hank Brown.
Hank Brown, quarterback: 1,190 passing yards, 169 pass attempts and 109 completions in 7 games this season.
One game without Hank Brown is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Hank Brown
−0.4
without Hank Brown
+17.6
020
plain
15.6
17.0
02040
The games
with Hank Brownwithout Hank Brown
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 3 | 12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 1 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | -17 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 17 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | -3 | 9.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | W | 30 | -4.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.