Iowa’s points allowed with Jeremy Hecklinski and without Jeremy Hecklinski
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 5.8 points over with Jeremy Hecklinski and 3.2 points under without Jeremy Hecklinski over its last 25 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are 24.0 and 14.3, a difference of 9.8. All 12 home games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 16 day games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 8 ranked opponents were without Jeremy Hecklinski.
Jeremy Hecklinski, quarterback: 480 passing yards, 69 pass attempts and 43 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game with Jeremy Hecklinski is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jeremy Hecklinski
+5.8
without Jeremy Hecklinski
−3.2
-20-10010
plain
24.0
14.3
0102030
The games
with Jeremy Hecklinskiwithout Jeremy Hecklinski
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 20 | 19.9 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 13 | 24.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Nebraska | W | 10 | 19.9 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Missouri (neutral) | L | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsUUAlbany | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Iowa State | L | 16 | 17.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 7 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 28 | 19.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 20 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 0 | 12.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Penn State | W | 24 | 19.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 3 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 18 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ USC | L | 26 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan State | W | 17 | 15.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Nebraska | W | 16 | 19.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | W | 27 | 27.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 0 | 11.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 13 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNorthern Iowa | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Michigan | W | 19 | 16.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Ohio State | L | 31 | 23.9 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Washington | W | 24 | 18.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Minnesota | L | 13 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWisconsin | W | 0 | 21.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- UAlbany, Northern Iowa have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 16 of these 21 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jeremy Hecklinski nor without Jeremy Hecklinski: Jeremy Hecklinski had no game for the team that season, and sit out.