Putting Up Numbers· college football

Iowa’s penalty yards with Jeremy Hecklinski and without Jeremy Hecklinski

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa was 20.2 yards over with Jeremy Hecklinski and 18.3 yards under without Jeremy Hecklinski in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 73.0 and 40.3, a difference of 32.7. All 5 home games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 6 day games were without Jeremy Hecklinski. All 3 ranked opponents were without Jeremy Hecklinski.

Jeremy Hecklinski, quarterback: 472 passing yards, 67 pass attempts and 41 completions in 5 games this season.

One game with Jeremy Hecklinski is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

penalty yards a game over expected

The games

with Jeremy Hecklinskiwithout Jeremy Hecklinski
Iowa’s games, 2026, each marked with Jeremy Hecklinski or without Jeremy Hecklinski
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsNorthern IllinoisW6050.6
Sep 12, 2026vsIowa StateW2554.2
Sep 19, 2026vsNNorthern IowaW83—
Sep 26, 2026@MichiganW3451.9
Oct 3, 2026vsOhio StateL4550.2
Oct 9, 2026@WashingtonW7352.8
Oct 24, 2026@MinnesotaL2551.9
Oct 31, 2026vsWisconsinW1049.9

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 27% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Northern Iowa has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.