Iowa State’s third-down conversion rate with Jaylen Raynor and without Jaylen Raynor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 1.8 percentage points under with Jaylen Raynor and 16.9 percentage points under without Jaylen Raynor over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.2% and 21.4%, a difference of 13.8%. All 5 home games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 night games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 unranked opponents were with Jaylen Raynor.
Jaylen Raynor, quarterback: 1,416 passing yards, 186 pass attempts and 111 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Jaylen Raynor is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaylen Raynor
−1.8%
without Jaylen Raynor
−16.9%
-20%0%
plain
35.2%
21.4%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Jaylen Raynorwithout Jaylen Raynor
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Cincinnati | W | 43.8% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah | W | 50.0% | 32.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas State | W | 25.0% | 40.9% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 40.5% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsKansas State (neutral) | W | 21.4% | 39.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 90.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 53.3% | 30.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 45.5% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Arizona | W | 46.2% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Cincinnati | L | 25.0% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 16.7% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 45.5% | 32.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArizona State | L | 14.3% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ TCU | W | 50.0% | 34.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 56.3% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 28.6% | 41.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 30.8% | 33.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 40.0% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 21.4% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs West Virginia | W | 45.5% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @BYU | L | 15.4% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arizona | L | 21.4% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 53.3% | 35.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southeast Missouri State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jaylen Raynor nor without Jaylen Raynor: Jaylen Raynor had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.