Iowa State’s third-down conversion rate with Jaylen Raynor and without Jaylen Raynor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 1.8 percentage points under with Jaylen Raynor and 16.9 percentage points under without Jaylen Raynor in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.2% and 21.4%, a difference of 13.8%. All 5 home games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 night games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 unranked opponents were with Jaylen Raynor.
Jaylen Raynor, quarterback: 1,416 passing yards, 186 pass attempts and 111 completions in 8 games this season.
One game without Jaylen Raynor is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jaylen Raynor
−1.8%
without Jaylen Raynor
−16.9%
-20%0%
plain
35.2%
21.4%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Jaylen Raynorwithout Jaylen Raynor
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | 30.8% | 33.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 40.0% | 39.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 21.4% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs West Virginia | W | 45.5% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ BYU | L | 15.4% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | 21.4% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 53.3% | 35.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southeast Missouri State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.