Iowa State’s points of margin with Connor Moberly and without Connor Moberly
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 32.5 points under with Connor Moberly and 1.1 points over without Connor Moberly over its last 25 games, 1 game against 22. The plain averages are -36.0 and 5.8, a difference of 41.8. All 13 home games were without Connor Moberly. All 3 neutral-site games were without Connor Moberly. All 6 night games were without Connor Moberly.
Connor Moberly, quarterback: 83 passing yards, 23 pass attempts and 9 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game with Connor Moberly is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Connor Moberly
−32.5
without Connor Moberly
+1.1
-20020
plain
-36.0
5.8
0
The games
with Connor Moberlywithout Connor Moberly
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Cincinnati | W | 17 | 8.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah | W | 3 | 6.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas State | W | 8 | 3.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | -26 | 1.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | W | 1 | -5.0 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsKansas State (neutral) | W | 3 | -1.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 48 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 3 | -11.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 8 | 18.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Arizona | W | 25 | -6.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Cincinnati | L | -8 | 3.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | -7 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs BYU | L | -14 | -3.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArizona State | L | -5 | 5.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ TCU | W | 3 | -5.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 24 | 2.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 7 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Iowa | L | -3 | -12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 48 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsUtah | L | -14 | -9.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs West Virginia | W | 3 | 7.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @BYU | L | -14 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arizona | L | -36 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 2 | -4.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- South Dakota, Southeast Missouri State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 25 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.