Iowa State’s points of margin with Connor Moberly and without Connor Moberly
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 32.5 points under with Connor Moberly and 5.1 points over without Connor Moberly in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are -36.0 and 7.1, a difference of 43.1. All 5 home games were without Connor Moberly. All 3 night games were without Connor Moberly. All 3 unranked opponents were without Connor Moberly.
Connor Moberly, quarterback: 83 passing yards, 19 pass attempts and 9 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Connor Moberly is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Connor Moberly
−32.5
without Connor Moberly
+5.1
-20020
plain
-36.0
7.1
0
The games
with Connor Moberlywithout Connor Moberly
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Iowa | L | -3 | -12.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 48 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Utah | L | -14 | -9.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs West Virginia | W | 3 | 7.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ BYU | L | -14 | -8.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Arizona | L | -36 | -3.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 2 | -4.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southeast Missouri State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.