Iowa State’s carries with Jaylen Raynor and without Jaylen Raynor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Iowa State was 2.1 carries over with Jaylen Raynor and 6.7 carries under without Jaylen Raynor over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.3 and 31.0, a difference of 6.3. All 5 home games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 night games were with Jaylen Raynor. All 3 unranked opponents were with Jaylen Raynor.
Jaylen Raynor, quarterback: 1,416 passing yards, 186 pass attempts and 111 completions in 8 of those 25 games, 23% of Iowa State’s carries in those games.
One game without Jaylen Raynor is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jaylen Raynor
+2.1
without Jaylen Raynor
−6.7
010
plain
37.3
31.0
30354045
The games
with Jaylen Raynorwithout Jaylen Raynor
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Cincinnati | W | 34 | 37.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah | W | 38 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas State | W | 41 | 35.2 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Arizona State (neutral) | L | 32 | 34.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | W | 30 | 35.9 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | vsKansas State (neutral) | W | 42 | 39.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Iowa | W | 28 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 32 | 40.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Arizona | W | 46 | 38.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Cincinnati | L | 37 | 42.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Colorado | L | 37 | 41.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 34 | 34.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsArizona State | L | 32 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ TCU | W | 40 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 50 | 35.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 48 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSoutheast Missouri State | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Iowa | L | 34 | 37.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 46 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 33 | 30.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs West Virginia | W | 46 | 35.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @BYU | L | 27 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Arizona | L | 31 | 37.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 44 | 37.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Southeast Missouri State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jaylen Raynor nor without Jaylen Raynor: Jaylen Raynor had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.