Houston’s third-down conversion rate with DJ Butler and without DJ Butler
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Houston was 2.4 percentage points over with DJ Butler and 4.5 percentage points over without DJ Butler over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 45.5% and 46.5%, a difference of 1.1%. Expected was 1.5 percentage points lower with DJ Butler than without DJ Butler. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with DJ Butler. All 3 games after a bye were with DJ Butler.
DJ Butler, running back: 452 rushing yards, 89 carries and 12 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
A −1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Kansas State | W | 25.0% | 32.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2024 | @ Arizona | L | 15.4% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Baylor | L | 30.0% | 32.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ BYU | L | 41.7% | 33.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStephen F. Austin | W | 41.2% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 56.3% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | vs Colorado | W | 38.9% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 40.0% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Texas Tech | L | 8.3% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 33.3% | 44.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsArizona | W | 57.1% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arizona State | W | 46.7% | 37.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs West Virginia | L | 41.7% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ UCF | W | 50.0% | 39.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs TCU | L | 23.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Baylor | W | 35.7% | 43.2% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs LSU (neutral) | W | 46.7% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsOregon State | W | 53.8% | 51.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern | W | 100.0% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Texas Tech | L | 60.0% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 88.9% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 50.0% | 50.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Kansas State | W | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsOklahoma State | W | 53.8% | 50.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 52.9% | 44.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stephen F. Austin, Southern have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.