Houston’s third-down conversion rate with DJ Butler and without DJ Butler
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Houston was 6.6 percentage points over with DJ Butler and 24.3 percentage points over without DJ Butler in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 61.8% and 69.4%, a difference of 7.7%. All 3 night games were with DJ Butler. All 3 ranked opponents were with DJ Butler.
DJ Butler, running back: 86 rushing yards, 11 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season.
2 games without DJ Butler is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −17.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
A −7.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 53.8% | 51.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern | W | 100.0% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 60.0% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 88.9% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 50.0% | 50.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kansas State | W | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 53.8% | 50.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 52.9% | 44.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.