Houston’s carries with DJ Butler and without DJ Butler
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Houston was 0.4 carries over with DJ Butler and 3.7 carries over without DJ Butler in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 38.8 and 41.0, a difference of 2.2. All 3 night games were with DJ Butler. All 3 ranked opponents were with DJ Butler.
DJ Butler, running back: 86 rushing yards, 11 carries and 1 reception in 6 games this season, 5% of Houston’s carries in those games.
2 games without DJ Butler is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −3.3 difference in carries over expected with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
A −2.2 difference in carries with DJ Butler vs without DJ Butler is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 40 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern | W | 45 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 36 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 39 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 43 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kansas State | W | 43 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 38 | 41.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Utah | L | 31 | 31.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.