Hawaii’s third-down conversion rate with Cam Barfield and without Cam Barfield
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hawaii was 0.8 percentage points under with Cam Barfield and 0.4 percentage points over without Cam Barfield in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 38.1% and 39.2%, a difference of 1.1%. All 4 away games were with Cam Barfield. All 4 second-half games were with Cam Barfield.
Cam Barfield, running back: 150 rushing yards, 45 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Cam Barfield is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cam Barfield vs without Cam Barfield is about what you’d expect.
A −1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cam Barfield vs without Cam Barfield is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 42.1% | 41.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | 45.0% | 37.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 33.3% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | 35.7% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | 30.8% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | 36.8% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 23.1% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 60.0% | 43.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.