Hawaii’s points of margin with Cam Barfield and without Cam Barfield
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Hawaii was 1.3 points over with Cam Barfield and 7.0 points under without Cam Barfield in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -4.2 and -2.5, a difference of 1.7. Expected was 9.9 points lower with Cam Barfield than without Cam Barfield. All 4 away games were with Cam Barfield. All 4 second-half games were with Cam Barfield.
Cam Barfield, running back: 150 rushing yards, 45 carries and 11 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Cam Barfield is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +8.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Cam Barfield vs without Cam Barfield is about what you’d expect.
A −1.7 difference in points of margin with Cam Barfield vs without Cam Barfield is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | -10 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UNLV | L | -15 | 3.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 10 | 5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Wyoming | L | -17 | -1.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs San Jose State | L | -4 | 1.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Arizona State | L | -18 | -12.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | -11 | -16.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 35 | -2.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.