Georgia Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Malachi Hosley and since Malachi Hosley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Tech was 5.1 percentage points over with Malachi Hosley and 10.7 percentage points under since Malachi Hosley’s last game over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are 44.0% and 27.7%, a difference of 16.3%. Both neutral-site games were with Malachi Hosley. All 4 ranked opponents were with Malachi Hosley. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Malachi Hosley.
Malachi Hosley, running back: 758 rushing yards, 114 carries and 14 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +15.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Malachi Hosley vs since Malachi Hosley’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Malachi Hosley and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A +16.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Malachi Hosley vs since Malachi Hosley’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Malachi Hosley and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 64.3% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs NC State | W | 35.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 46.7% | 34.4% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 45.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 54.5% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Clemson | W | 53.3% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Temple | W | 37.5% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 43.8% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 58.3% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 50.0% | 46.6% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 66.7% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @NC State | L | 54.5% | 46.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 58.3% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 21.4% | 44.3% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 36.4% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsColorado | L | 38.5% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tennessee | L | 53.8% | 29.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mercer | W | 18.2% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 27.3% | 44.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsDuke | W | 40.0% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 36.4% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBoston College | L | 18.2% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | 16.7% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Gardner-Webb, Mercer have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 21 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Malachi Hosley nor since Malachi Hosley’s last game: Malachi Hosley had no game for the team that season, and sit out.