Georgia Tech’s third-down conversion rate with Justice Haynes and without Justice Haynes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Tech was 4.1 percentage points under with Justice Haynes and 0.9 percentage points under without Justice Haynes over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.4% and 36.4%, a difference of 6.0%. All 5 home games were with Justice Haynes. All 3 night games were with Justice Haynes. All 3 nonconference games were with Justice Haynes.
Justice Haynes, running back: 548 rushing yards, 112 carries and 13 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Justice Haynes is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Justice Haynes
−4.1%
without Justice Haynes
−0.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
30.4%
36.4%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Justice Hayneswithout Justice Haynes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 64.3% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs NC State | W | 35.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 46.7% | 34.4% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 45.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 54.5% | 40.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Clemson | W | 53.3% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Temple | W | 37.5% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 43.8% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 58.3% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 50.0% | 46.6% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 66.7% | 43.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @NC State | L | 54.5% | 46.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 58.3% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 21.4% | 44.3% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 36.4% | 42.2% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsColorado | L | 38.5% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tennessee | L | 53.8% | 29.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mercer | W | 18.2% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 27.3% | 44.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsDuke | W | 40.0% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 36.4% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBoston College | L | 18.2% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | 16.7% | 39.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercer has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Justice Haynes nor without Justice Haynes: Justice Haynes had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.