Georgia Tech’s points of margin with Kyle Efford and without Kyle Efford
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Tech was 2.8 points over with Kyle Efford and 9.8 points under without Kyle Efford over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 4.1 and -6.2, a difference of 10.3. All 6 ranked opponents were with Kyle Efford. All 3 top-10 opponents were with Kyle Efford. All 10 games while ranked were with Kyle Efford.
Kyle Efford, defender: 19 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kyle Efford
+2.8
without Kyle Efford
−9.8
-20020
A +12.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Kyle Efford vs without Kyle Efford is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kyle Efford and it comes up 9 times in 100.
plain
4.1
-6.2
-2002040
A +10.3 difference in points of margin with Kyle Efford vs without Kyle Efford is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kyle Effordwithout Kyle Efford
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 5 | -10.1 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs NC State | W | 1 | 12.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | -2 | -17.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | L | -8 | -0.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 7 | 7.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Clemson | W | 3 | 2.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Temple | W | 21 | 16.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 1 | -0.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 15 | 11.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 9 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 25 | 18.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @NC State | L | -12 | -2.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 2 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | -14 | 2.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | -7 | -13.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | -4 | -9.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsColorado | L | -1 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tennessee | L | -21 | -23.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mercer | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | -7 | 2.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsDuke | W | 3 | -17.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | -10 | -12.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBoston College | L | -22 | 5.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | -23 | -15.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Gardner-Webb, Mercer have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 25 games; in the other 12 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.