Georgia Tech’s carries with Justice Haynes and without Justice Haynes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Tech was 1.8 carries under with Justice Haynes and 7.5 carries under without Justice Haynes over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.7 and 21.0, a difference of 9.7. All 5 home games were with Justice Haynes. All 3 night games were with Justice Haynes. All 3 nonconference games were with Justice Haynes.
Justice Haynes, running back: 548 rushing yards, 112 carries and 13 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 52% of Georgia Tech’s carries in those games.
One game without Justice Haynes is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Justice Haynes
−1.8
without Justice Haynes
−7.5
-50
plain
30.7
21.0
253035
The games
with Justice Hayneswithout Justice Haynes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 46 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | vs NC State | W | 35 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Georgia | L | 47 | 33.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt (neutral) | L | 36 | 34.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Colorado | W | 46 | 40.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsGGardner-Webb | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Clemson | W | 42 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Temple | W | 30 | 40.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 42 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 41 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Duke | W | 34 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 36 | 36.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @NC State | L | 33 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 42 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 33 | 35.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 22 | 30.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 28 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsColorado | L | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tennessee | L | 31 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mercer | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 32 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsDuke | W | 26 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 21 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBoston College | L | 28 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Pittsburgh | L | 32 | 27.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercer has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Justice Haynes nor without Justice Haynes: Justice Haynes had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.