Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Vernell Brown III and without Vernell Brown III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 0.2 percentage points under with Vernell Brown III and 1.4 percentage points under without Vernell Brown III over its last 25 games, 12 games against 6. The plain averages are 37.6% and 37.2%, a difference of 0.4%. Expected was 1.8 percentage points lower with Vernell Brown III than without Vernell Brown III. Both neutral-site games were without Vernell Brown III. All 8 night games were with Vernell Brown III. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Vernell Brown III.
Vernell Brown III, receiver: 783 receiving yards, 57 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Vernell Brown III vs without Vernell Brown III is about what you’d expect.
A +0.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Vernell Brown III vs without Vernell Brown III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 33.3% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 46.7% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 38.5% | 42.7% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 33.3% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 0.0% | 31.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 50.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 27.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 33.3% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 46.7% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 46.2% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 22.2% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 46.2% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 55.6% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 46.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 60.0% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 37.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 42.1% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Campbell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Vernell Brown III nor without Vernell Brown III: Vernell Brown III had no game for the team that season, and sit out.