Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Duke Clark and without Duke Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 7.7 percentage points over with Duke Clark and 7.3 percentage points under without Duke Clark over its last 25 games, 8 games against 10. The plain averages are 46.5% and 28.5%, a difference of 17.9%. Both neutral-site games were without Duke Clark. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Duke Clark.
Duke Clark, running back: 323 rushing yards, 51 carries and 7 receptions in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +15.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Duke Clark vs without Duke Clark is unusual: shuffle which games were with Duke Clark and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +17.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Duke Clark vs without Duke Clark is rare: shuffle which games were with Duke Clark and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 33.3% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 46.7% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 38.5% | 42.7% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 33.3% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 0.0% | 31.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 50.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 27.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 33.3% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 46.7% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 46.2% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 22.2% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 46.2% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 55.6% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 46.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 60.0% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 37.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 42.1% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Campbell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Duke Clark nor without Duke Clark: Duke Clark had no game for the team that season, and sit out.