Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Duke Clark and since Duke Clark’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 6.1 percentage points over with Duke Clark and 1.2 percentage points under since Duke Clark’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 46.5% and 37.7%, a difference of 8.8%. All 4 home games were with Duke Clark. Both night games were with Duke Clark. All 4 unranked opponents were with Duke Clark.
Duke Clark, running back: 265 rushing yards, 36 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Duke Clark’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Duke Clark vs since Duke Clark’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Duke Clark vs since Duke Clark’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 55.6% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 46.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 60.0% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 37.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas | W | 42.1% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.