Florida’s third-down conversion rate with Aaron Philo and since Aaron Philo’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 6.1 percentage points over with Aaron Philo and 1.2 percentage points under since Aaron Philo’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 46.5% and 37.7%, a difference of 8.8%. All 4 home games were with Aaron Philo. Both night games were with Aaron Philo. All 4 unranked opponents were with Aaron Philo.
Aaron Philo, quarterback: 1,367 passing yards, 156 pass attempts and 110 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games since Aaron Philo’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 42.9% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 33.3% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 46.7% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 38.5% | 42.7% | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 33.3% | 38.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | 35.3% | 32.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 0.0% | 31.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 50.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 27.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 33.3% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 18.2% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 46.7% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 46.2% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 22.2% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 46.2% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 55.6% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 46.7% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 60.0% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 37.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 46.2% | 44.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 42.1% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Aaron Philo nor since Aaron Philo’s last game: Aaron Philo had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.