Florida’s points of margin with Tramell Jones Jr. and without Tramell Jones Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 0.2 points over with Tramell Jones Jr. and 0.7 points under without Tramell Jones Jr. over its last 25 games, 2 games against 16. The plain averages are 13.0 and -0.5, a difference of 13.5. All 5 of Billy Gonzales’ games were without Tramell Jones Jr..
Tramell Jones Jr., quarterback: 770 passing yards, 124 pass attempts and 84 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
3 games with Tramell Jones Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +0.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Tramell Jones Jr. vs without Tramell Jones Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +13.5 difference in points of margin with Tramell Jones Jr. vs without Tramell Jones Jr. is unusual: shuffle which games were with Tramell Jones Jr. and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | -32 | -9.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 11 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 7 | -7.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 20 | 16.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 25 | 1.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | -2 | -3.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | -10 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -19 | -21.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 8 | -8.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | -17 | -14.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 2 | 6.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | -4 | -14.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | -31 | 5.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | -10 | -16.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | -20 | 1.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 19 | -5.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 45 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 5 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 24 | -9.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -28 | 3.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | -19 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 3 | -12.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | -19 | -4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Campbell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Tramell Jones Jr. nor without Tramell Jones Jr.: Tramell Jones Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.