Florida’s points of margin with Duke Clark and since Duke Clark’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 0.2 points over with Duke Clark and 0.2 points over since Duke Clark’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 12.7 and -8.0, a difference of 20.7. All 4 home games were with Duke Clark. Both night games were with Duke Clark. All 4 unranked opponents were with Duke Clark.
Duke Clark, running back: 265 rushing yards, 36 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Duke Clark’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −0.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Duke Clark vs since Duke Clark’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +20.7 difference in points of margin with Duke Clark vs since Duke Clark’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 45 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 5 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 24 | -9.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -28 | 3.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | -19 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas | W | 3 | -12.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | -19 | -4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.