Florida’s points of margin with Aaron Philo and since Aaron Philo’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 0.2 points over with Aaron Philo and 0.2 points over since Aaron Philo’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 12.7 and -8.0, a difference of 20.7. All 4 home games were with Aaron Philo. Both night games were with Aaron Philo. All 4 unranked opponents were with Aaron Philo.
Aaron Philo, quarterback: 1,367 passing yards, 156 pass attempts and 110 completions in 7 games this season.
2 games since Aaron Philo’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −0.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +20.7 difference in points of margin with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 45 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 5 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 24 | -9.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | -28 | 3.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | -19 | 8.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas | W | 3 | -12.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | -19 | -4.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.