Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida’s points allowed with Eric Singleton Jr. and without Eric Singleton Jr.

, ,

Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 0.2 points under with Eric Singleton Jr. and 14.7 points over without Eric Singleton Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.5 and 21.0, a difference of 9.5. All 4 ranked opponents were with Eric Singleton Jr.. All 3 top-10 opponents were with Eric Singleton Jr.. All 4 games while ranked were with Eric Singleton Jr..

Eric Singleton Jr., receiver: 112 receiving yards and 14 receptions in 5 games this season.

2 games without Eric Singleton Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

points allowed a game over expected

A +9.5 difference in points allowed with Eric Singleton Jr. vs without Eric Singleton Jr. is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Eric Singleton Jr.without Eric Singleton Jr.
Florida’s games, 2026, each marked with Eric Singleton Jr. or without Eric Singleton Jr.
SideDateGameResultpoints allowedExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsFlorida AtlanticW2124.7
Sep 12, 2026vsCCampbellW3—
Sep 19, 2026@AuburnW3924.3
Sep 26, 2026vsOle MissW2834.7
Oct 3, 2026@MissouriL4524.9
Oct 10, 2026vsSouth CarolinaL3831.7
Oct 17, 2026@TexasW2432.6
Oct 31, 2026vsGeorgia (neutral)L2735.5

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.