Florida’s points allowed with Duke Clark and without Duke Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 3.0 points over with Duke Clark and 1.1 points under without Duke Clark over its last 25 games, 8 games against 10. The plain averages are 23.6 and 27.7, a difference of 4.1. Both neutral-site games were without Duke Clark. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Duke Clark.
Duke Clark, running back: 323 rushing yards, 51 carries and 7 receptions in 10 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Duke Clark
+3.0
without Duke Clark
−1.1
-1001020
A +4.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Duke Clark vs without Duke Clark is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.6
27.7
02040
A −4.1 difference in points allowed with Duke Clark vs without Duke Clark is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Duke Clark and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
with Duke Clarkwithout Duke Clark
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 49 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 16 | 27.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 17 | 29.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 11 | 13.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 8 | 26.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 18 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | 20 | 19.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 26 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 21 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 34 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 21 | 23.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 24 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 38 | 18.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 34 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 31 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 21 | 24.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 21 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 39 | 24.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 28 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 45 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 38 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 24 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 27 | 35.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Long Island University, Campbell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Duke Clark nor without Duke Clark: Duke Clark had no game for the team that season, and sit out.