Florida’s carries with Vernell Brown III and since Vernell Brown III’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 9.2 carries over with Vernell Brown III and 3.8 carries under since Vernell Brown III’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 43.5 and 33.5, a difference of 10.0. Both night games were with Vernell Brown III. Both nonconference games were with Vernell Brown III. All 4 first-half games were with Vernell Brown III.
Vernell Brown III, receiver: 271 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 4 games this season, 2% of Florida’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +13.0 difference in carries over expected with Vernell Brown III vs since Vernell Brown III’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Vernell Brown III and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A +10.0 difference in carries with Vernell Brown III vs since Vernell Brown III’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Vernell Brown III and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 40 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 52 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 52 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 25 | 37.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 38 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas | W | 43 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 28 | 38.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.