Florida’s carries with Tramell Jones Jr. and without Tramell Jones Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 1.6 carries under with Tramell Jones Jr. and 3.1 carries over without Tramell Jones Jr. in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 35.5 and 39.5, a difference of 4.0. All 4 home games were without Tramell Jones Jr.. Both night games were without Tramell Jones Jr.. All 4 unranked opponents were without Tramell Jones Jr..
Tramell Jones Jr., quarterback: 579 passing yards, 89 pass attempts and 63 completions in 6 games this season, 12% of Florida’s carries in those games.
2 games with Tramell Jones Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −4.7 difference in carries over expected with Tramell Jones Jr. vs without Tramell Jones Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −4.0 difference in carries with Tramell Jones Jr. vs without Tramell Jones Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 40 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 52 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 52 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 25 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 38 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Texas | W | 43 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 28 | 38.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.