Florida’s carries with Aaron Philo and since Aaron Philo’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida was 3.1 carries over with Aaron Philo and 1.6 carries under since Aaron Philo’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 39.5 and 35.5, a difference of 4.0. All 4 home games were with Aaron Philo. Both night games were with Aaron Philo. All 4 unranked opponents were with Aaron Philo.
Aaron Philo, quarterback: 1,367 passing yards, 156 pass attempts and 110 completions in 7 of those 25 games, 17% of Florida’s carries in those games.
2 games since Aaron Philo’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +4.7 difference in carries over expected with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +4.0 difference in carries with Aaron Philo vs since Aaron Philo’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas | L | 41 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs LSU | W | 14 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Ole Miss | W | 44 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 38 | 39.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Tulane (neutral) | W | 44 | 32.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsLLong Island University | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs South Florida | L | 31 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @LSU | L | 27 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 29 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsTexas | W | 37 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 24 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 33 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Georgia (neutral) | L | 31 | 25.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 31 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Ole Miss | L | 25 | 33.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tennessee | L | 30 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsFlorida State | W | 45 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 40 | 39.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCampbell | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 52 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 52 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Missouri | L | 25 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 38 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Texas | W | 43 | 35.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | L | 28 | 38.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Campbell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Aaron Philo nor since Aaron Philo’s last game: Aaron Philo had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.