Florida State’s third-down conversion rate with Samuel Singleton Jr. and without Samuel Singleton Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida State was 3.1 percentage points over with Samuel Singleton Jr. and 4.5 percentage points under without Samuel Singleton Jr. over its last 25 games, 17 games against 5. The plain averages are 46.5% and 37.4%, a difference of 9.0%. All 5 games while ranked were with Samuel Singleton Jr..
Samuel Singleton Jr., running back: 515 rushing yards, 87 carries and 12 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Samuel Singleton Jr. vs without Samuel Singleton Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +9.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Samuel Singleton Jr. vs without Samuel Singleton Jr. is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Samuel Singleton Jr. and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 23.1% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs North Carolina | L | 20.0% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Notre Dame | L | 17.6% | 30.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Florida | L | 46.2% | 29.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Alabama | W | 41.7% | 45.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 71.4% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 90.0% | 53.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | @ Virginia | L | 40.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsMiami (FL) | L | 43.8% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh | L | 50.0% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 44.4% | 46.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | W | 63.6% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Clemson | L | 33.3% | 42.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 63.6% | 48.9% | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | @ NC State | L | 41.7% | 50.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Florida | L | 50.0% | 49.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 57.1% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs SMU | L | 13.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Alabama | L | 53.3% | 32.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 41.2% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Miami (FL) | L | 41.7% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsClemson | L | 10.0% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Charleston Southern, East Texas A&M, Central Arkansas have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 25 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.