Florida State’s third-down conversion rate with Ousmane Kromah and since Ousmane Kromah’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida State was 4.3 percentage points over with Ousmane Kromah and 30.5 percentage points under since Ousmane Kromah’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.4% and 10.0%, a difference of 32.4%. All 3 away games were with Ousmane Kromah. All 3 day games were with Ousmane Kromah. All 3 ranked opponents were with Ousmane Kromah.
Ousmane Kromah, running back: 609 rushing yards, 114 carries and 11 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Ousmane Kromah’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Ousmane Kromah
+4.3%
since Ousmane Kromah’s last game
−30.5%
-20%0%20%
plain
42.4%
10.0%
20%40%
The games
with Ousmane Kromahsince Ousmane Kromah’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | W | 57.1% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | vs SMU | L | 13.3% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 53.3% | 32.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 41.2% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 41.7% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 10.0% | 40.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Central Arkansas has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.