Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida State’s rushing yards with Ousmane Kromah and since Ousmane Kromah’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Florida State was 28.3 yards over with Ousmane Kromah and 137.6 yards under since Ousmane Kromah’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 181.6 and 65.0, a difference of 116.6. All 3 away games were with Ousmane Kromah. All 3 day games were with Ousmane Kromah. All 3 ranked opponents were with Ousmane Kromah.

Ousmane Kromah, running back: 609 rushing yards, 114 carries and 11 receptions in 7 games this season, 48% of Florida State’s rushing yards in those games.

One game since Ousmane Kromah’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

rushing yards a game over expected

The games

with Ousmane Kromahsince Ousmane Kromah’s last game
Florida State’s games, 2026, each marked with Ousmane Kromah or since Ousmane Kromah’s last game
SideDateGameResultrushing yardsExpected
Aug 29, 2026vsNew Mexico StateW222184.7
Sep 7, 2026vsSMUL199165.3
Sep 19, 2026@AlabamaL94114.4
Sep 26, 2026vsCCentral ArkansasW181—
Oct 3, 2026vsVirginiaW282179.1
Oct 9, 2026@LouisvilleL153181.1
Oct 17, 2026@Miami (FL)L14095.4
Oct 31, 2026vsClemsonL65202.6

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Central Arkansas has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.